A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
